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Resetting the U.S.-Pakistan Relationship

Parliament, Islamabad. Photo courtesy of flickr, http://www.flickr.com/photos/bigberto/3297096128/sizes/m/in/photostream/

2011 was a catastrophic year for U.S.-Pakistan relations. Starting with CIA contractor Ray Davis’s arrest for shooting two Pakistanis dead case in January, going on through the raid on Abbottabad in early May that killed Osama bin Laden, and culminating in the NATO forces lethal attack on a Pakistani border post in November 2011, a series of shocks shook this important partnership to its core. Both countries expect their future relationship to be more modest, but neither has defined this concept. As they grapple with this change, U.S. policymakers need to recognize that Pakistan, not Afghanistan, is the big issue, and to develop building blocks for a post-2014 relationship that meets the needs of both countries.

Read our article, published in foreignpolicy.com March 19, 2012.

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Making Peace When Disaster Strikes: Sri Lanka, Aceh, and the 2004 Tsunami

Photo by S. Baker, http://www.flickr.com/photos/sarahbaker/214791736/sizes/m/in/photostream/

On the day after Christmas 2004, a powerful 9.0 magnitude earthquake under the Indian Ocean off of northern Sumatra sent massive waves crashing against the coastlines of countries as far away as Kenya and Madagascar. This tsunami killed or left missing some 226,000 people and displaced an estimated 1.7 million more in fourteen Asian and African countries. Damage to property—infrastructure, residences, government buildings, and commercial establishments—was enormous. Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, and the Maldives were the most seriously affected. The cata­strophic tsunami boosted on efforts to bring about a negotiated settlements of the insurgency then raging in Aceh, Indonesia; it had the opposite effect in Sri Lanka.

Read full report by Howard Schaffer, released by the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy.

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Polio Eradication in India: To the Verge of Victory – and Beyond

CSIS Schaffer_PolioIndia_110

India’s struggle against major health challenges in the past few decades has been a white-knuckle ride, with India illustrating some of the best as well as the worst of the health problems of the developing world.

But now – even though those closest to the effort are unwilling to declare victory prematurely – there is a good chance that India’s polio eradication campaign will tell a more inspiring story. In 1988, when the World Health Assembly formally adopted polio eradication as a global goal, WHO data recorded 23,800 cases of polio in India. At this writing, it has been a year since the last case was identified, in West Bengal on January 13, 2011.

Read full report, published by CSIS January 24, 2012.

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India and the Nonproliferation System

India and the United States have been at odds over nuclear issues for more than three decades, and yet both countries’ interests are powerfully affected by the spread of nuclear weapons. The Working Group on an Expanded Non- Proliferation System, chaired by Teresita Schaffer and Joan Rohlfing, President of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, set out to answer the question, “What would be necessary to have India and the United States work together as active participants in the international non-proliferation system?” The working group, which consisted of a dozen members from India and the United States, with each group drawn about equally from nuclear experts and senior foreign policy figures, recommended bringing India into the four major multilateral export control groups; its report recommends a number of other ways to enhance India-U.S. cooperation and help protect the world from nuclear dangers.

Read full report on NTI web site.

Follow links to the group’s working papers. (click on drop-down menu at top of page)

Read summary of seminar on the report and next steps in reducing nuclear dangers, at Brookings, January 5, 2012.

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A Welcome Appointment at a Critical Time

Photo by State Department

President Obama chose the U.S. government’s top South Asia hand, Nancy Powell, as his next ambassador to Delhi. She will need to address some long-running problems, help both governments find a compatible vision for their partnership and, importantly, keep the top leadership on both sides personally engaged.

See our article in The Hindu, December 21, 2011