Politics, economics, regional dynamics of South Asia
June 8, 2011: Lawrence Eagleburger’s death on June 4 took away one of the giants of American diplomacy, as well as one of the great characters of the U.S. Foreign Service. Generations of U.S. diplomats were professionally reared on Eagleburger stories. He inspired terror, admiration and pride in more or less equal parts. His concern for South Asia was ordinarily limited, but he left his imprint – and some great stories – nonetheless.
The U.S. and India are getting more interested in negotiations with the Afghan Taliban. Their evolving policies could benefit from closer U.S.-India consultations, and from back-channel India-Pakistan talks on Afghanistan.
Read the full article, first published in The Hindu, June 1, 2011.
May 17, 2011: Two weeks after the “Abbottabad incident,” as the raid that killed Osama bin Laden is being called in Pakistan, the United States and Pakistan increasingly look as if they are moving toward a break. Neither seems prepared to agree to the other side’s public demands. Such a “third divorce” between Washington and Islamabad is not yet inevitable. Rather than trying to put back together an open-ended relationship that is undermined by the strategic gap between the two partners, we believe they should focus on concrete goals and specific operating guidelines that both can honor.
In the wake of Abbottabad, both sides are angry. In the United States, the focus is on bin Laden. NSC Adviser Thomas Donilon said that he had seen “no evidence” that senior Pakistani leaders knowingly sheltered bin Laden, but that leaves unstated the agonizing question – who did know, and what unwritten guidance did they have? On the Pakistani side, Prime Minister Gilani on May 3 referred to the death of bin Laden as a “great victory.” By the next day, the Foreign Ministry was expressing “deep concern.” Opposition leader Nawaz Sharif excoriated the violation of sovereignty involved in the raid. In the media, the stress, increasingly, is on how Pakistan is suffering from “America’s war.”
Continue reading “The U.S. and Pakistan: The Third Divorce?”
Scam-o-ramas erupting across India have transfixed public debate in India, leading to a popular social movement, in the Gandhian tradition, aimed at ending corruption. It has been a heady and exciting moment, powered by Facebook and the Internet. But whether this is a transformative movement in Indian life largely depends on the middle class’s continued engagement in the issue.
Read Teresita Schaffer’s analysis, published on foreignpolicy.com May 3, 2011.
May 1, 2011: The world’s biggest international military aircraft deal in two decades has been moving slowly through the Indian government’s procurement process. After years of discreet and not-so-discreet lobbying by aircraft manufacturers, heads of state, and everyone in between, the Indian Air Force announced on April 27 that it was short-listing the two European entries and excluding from further consideration the remaining four contestants, including two from the United States: a Boeing-led consortium with the F-18 and Lockheed Martin with the F-16.
The announcement sent shock waves through Washington. This was by far the biggest potential military sale ever contemplated with India. It had been regarded in the United States not just as a commercial bonanza at a time of economic distress, but as the opportunity to introduce a new level of operational and strategic understanding into the growing India-U.S. defense relationship. In the five months between the high of the Obama visit to Delhi and, now, the low of the aircraft decision, what have we learned about how the two countries are managing their partnership and where it is headed?
Continue reading “Of Planes and Men: The U.S.-India Partnership”