An article by Teresita C. Schaffer expressing cautious optimism for the continuation of a tenuous ceasefire in Kashmir.
The year 2000 ended on a hopeful note in Kashmir, with India’s ceasefire for the Muslim holy month of Ramadan being extended until January 26. The principal Kashmiri political umbrella group seems interested in a dialogue with New Delhi, and the Pakistan military has withdrawn some forces from the Line of Control separating them from Indian units. All three constituencies now must consider who will talk, about what, and how they can continue the momentum. Discreet diplomatic encouragement from the United States has helped the process thus far, but the heavy lifting needs to be done in Delhi, Islamabad and Srinagar.
Originally published in the Center for Strategic & International Studies‘ South Asia Monitor on January 1, 2001. Read the entire article.
An article by Teresita C. Schaffer on political upheaval in Pakistan.
The attack on the authority of the Pakistani state that is being played out on the front pages of today’s newspapers has been building up for the better part of a decade. Reestablishing a stronger political and state structure is possible, but becomes more difficult each time the state appears to cede control to the insurgents. The U.S. strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan acknowledges the central importance of strengthening the Pakistani state. In practice, the United States has only indirect influence over the key ingredient in such an effort—the determination of Pakistan’s leaders and the effectiveness of its basic government institutions.
Originally published in the Center for Strategic & International Studies‘ South Asia Monitor on May 1, 2009. Read the entire article.
An article by Jeffrey Ellis and Teresita C. Schaffer on the implications of the February 2008 parliamentary elections in Pakistan.
The excitement of Pakistan’s February 18 election, a sharp rebuff to President Pervez Musharraf and his ruling party, has given way to intense maneuvering to form the next government and to anxiety about how a divided political leadership will tackle the country’s formidable problems. The United States has pledged to work with all of Pakistan’s political players and has apparently moved away from its emphasis on Musharraf. Its main concern will be with the effectiveness of Pakistan’s counterinsurgency operations in and near the border areas with Afghanistan.
Originally published in the Center for Strategic & International Studies‘ South Asia Monitor on March 10, 2008. Read the entire article.